分析陕西省成人慢性阻塞性肺疾病(chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, COPD)的危险因素，建立预测模型，为陕西省开展COPD综合防控工作提供参考依据。

选择2021年6月至2021年12月空军军医大学第二附属医院肺功能室检查的1 160例患者为对象，COPD患者580例为观察组，健康者580例为对照组，两组完成相关问卷，比较单因素后对相关因素行多因素分析，建立列线图预测模型。

COPD危险因素是高龄(OR＝9.908，95%CI：2.937~33.422)、吸烟史(OR＝2.074，95%CI：1.605~2.681) 、职业粉尘接触史(OR＝1.934，95%CI：1.308~2.859)、家族呼吸道疾病史(OR＝1.856，95%CI：1.303~2.643)、儿童时期呼吸道病史(OR＝1.804，95%CI: 1.284~2.534)、生物质燃料使用史(OR＝1.469，95%CI：1.048~2.061)。COPD风险预测模型AUC值为0.739；校准曲线Y与X直线相近；绘制决策曲线在阈值0.0~1.0范围内。吸烟年限与日吸烟量与COPD存在剂量-反应相关性，戒烟1年以上可以少量减少COPD风险。

COPD危险因素是高龄、吸烟史、职业粉尘接触史、家族呼吸道疾病史、儿童时期呼吸道病史、生物质燃料使用史，应采取相关措施预防COPD，根据上述因素建立的COPD风险预测模型具有临床意义。

To analyze the risk factors that lead to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and establish a relevant prediction model to provide a reference for the comprehensive prevention and control of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Shaanxi Province.

A total of 1 160 patients who underwent pulmonary function examination in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Air Force Medical University from June 2021 to December 2021 were selected as subjects, including 580 patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (observation group)and 580 control groups, requiring them to complete the relevant questionnaire. After comparing the single factors, it was analyzed that the relevant factors and established a column to establish a column. The nomogram predicts the model.

The risk factors of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease are the age (OR=9.908, 95%CI: 2.937-33.422), the history of smoking (OR= 2.074, 95%CI: 1.605-2.681), and the history of occupational dust contact (OR=1.934, 95%CI: 1.308-2.859), the history of family respiratory disease (OR=1.856, 95%CI: 1.303-2.643), the history of respiratory tract medical period (OR=1.804, 95%CI: 1.284-2.534), and the history of biomass fuel (OR=1.469, 95%CI: 1.048-2.061). According to the chronic obstructive pulmonary risk prediction model constructed by risk factors, the AUC value is 0.739; the calibration curve Y and X are similar; the decision-making curve is within the range of 0.0-1.0. The smoking period and daily smoking volume and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease have dosage-reaction correlation and can reduce the risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease for more than 1 year.

The risk factors of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease are the history of age, the history of smoking, the history of occupational dust contact, the history of family respiratory diseases, the history of the respiratory tract disease, and the history of biomass fuel. Chronic obstructive pulmonary risk prediction model has certain predictive value.