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中华肺部疾病杂志(电子版) ›› 2025, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (03) : 434 -441. doi: 10.3877/cma.j.issn.1674-6902.2025.03.017

论著

纤维化性结缔组织病相关间质性肺疾病进展的危险因素分析
张丽丽1,2, 韩志海3, 张春阳3, 陈韦3, 康奕欣4, 张燕3, 孟激光5, 丁毅伟3, 丁静3, 崔俊昌1,2,()   
  1. 1. 100091 北京,解放军总医院第八医学中心呼吸与危重症医学部
    2. 100853 北京,解放军医学院
    3. 100048 北京,解放军总医院第六医学中心呼吸与危重症医学科
    4. 300071 天津,南开大学医学院
    5. 100142 北京,解放军总医院第四医学中心呼吸与危重症医学科
  • 收稿日期:2024-11-26 出版日期:2025-06-25
  • 通信作者: 崔俊昌
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划(2023YFC2507101)解放军总医院第六医学中心创新培育基金(CXPY202309)

Analysis of risk factors for progression and development of a predictive model in Fibrotic CTD-ILD

Lili Zhang1,2, Zhihai Han3, Chunyang Zhang3, Wei Chen3, Yixin Kang4, Yan Zhang3, Jiguang Meng5, Yiwei Ding3, Jing Ding3, Junchang Cui1,2,()   

  1. 1. Senior Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine,the Eighth Medical Center,Chinese PLA General Hospital,Beijing 100091,China
    2. Chinese PLA Medical School,Beijing 100853,China
    3. Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine,the Sixth Medical Center,Chinese PLA General Hospital,Beijing 100048,China
    4. School of Medicine,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China
    5. Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine,the Fourth Medical Center,Chinese PLA General Hospital,Beijing 100142,China
  • Received:2024-11-26 Published:2025-06-25
  • Corresponding author: Junchang Cui
引用本文:

张丽丽, 韩志海, 张春阳, 陈韦, 康奕欣, 张燕, 孟激光, 丁毅伟, 丁静, 崔俊昌. 纤维化性结缔组织病相关间质性肺疾病进展的危险因素分析[J/OL]. 中华肺部疾病杂志(电子版), 2025, 18(03): 434-441.

Lili Zhang, Zhihai Han, Chunyang Zhang, Wei Chen, Yixin Kang, Yan Zhang, Jiguang Meng, Yiwei Ding, Jing Ding, Junchang Cui. Analysis of risk factors for progression and development of a predictive model in Fibrotic CTD-ILD[J/OL]. Chinese Journal of Lung Diseases(Electronic Edition), 2025, 18(03): 434-441.

目的

分析纤维化性结缔组织病相关间质性肺疾病(connective tissue disease-associated interstitial lung disease,CTD-ILD)进展的危险因素并构建预测。

方法

收集2019 年1 月至2023 年12 月住院接受治疗的132 例纤维化性CTD-ILD 患者基线临床资料,根据随访中是否发生进展分为疾病稳定78 例为对照组,疾病进展54 例为观察组。 采用LASSO 回归、随机森林、单因素Logistic 回归三种方法进行变量筛选,筛选出的共有变量纳入多因素逐步Logistic 回归进一步分析,寻找纤维化性CTD-ILD 进展的危险因素,基于多因素逐步回归构建预测并进行分析。

结果

多因素逐步Logistic 回归分析结果显示,有病毒感染史(OR=8.735,95% CI:2.754~27.711,P<0.001)、DLCO%pred (OR=0.962,95% CI:0.930~0.995,P<0.001)、HRCT 有蜂窝影(OR=7.685,95% CI:2.399 ~24.613,P<0.001)、合并肺动脉高压(pulmonary hypertension,PH)(OR=19.812,95% CI:4.152~94.534,P<0.001)与纤维化性CTD-ILD 的进展相关。 基于上述因素构建列线图预测,在训练集的ROC 曲线AUC 为0.92,其对应的敏感度为0.81,特异度为0.89,95% CI:0.87~0.97,在测试集的ROC 曲线AUC 为0.95,其对应的敏感度为0.82,特异度为0.75,95% CI:0.88~1.00,提示预测具有很好的区分力。 训练集及测试集所绘制的校准曲线与标准曲线均基本接近,提示模型有校准能力。 决策曲线显示训练集及测试集在较大的阈值内均有临床净收益,有较好的临床实用性。

结论

病毒感染史、基线低水平DLCO%pred、合并PH 及HRCT 出现蜂窝影与纤维化性CTD-ILD 进展相关。

Objective

To investigate the risk factors of he progression of fibrotic connective tissue disease-associated interstitial lung disease (CTD-ILD) and constructing predictive models.

Methods

The baseline clinical data of patients with fibrosing CTD-ILD who were hospitalized in the Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine of the Fourth,Sixth and Eighth Medical Centers of the PLA General Hospital from January,2019 to December,2023 were collected. The patients were divided into a stable group and a progressive group (PPF group) based on whether progression occurred during follow-up,The variables were preliminarily screened by four different methods including LASSO regression,random forest,gradient boosting machine,and one-way analysis of variance. The screened covariates were incorporated into multivariate stepwise Logistic regression for three analysis to identify the risk factors for the progression of fibrotic. Based on multivariate stepwise regression,a predictive model for the progression of CTD-ILD was constructed and evaluated.

Results

The multivariate stepwise regression results demonstrated that a history of novel coronavirus infection(OR=8.735,95% CI:2.754 ~27.711,P<0.001),DLCO%pred (OR=0.962,95% CI:0.930 ~0.995,P<0.001),DLCO%pred ≥60%(OR=0.07,P =0.016),honeycomb shadow on HRCT(OR=7.685,95% CI:2.399~24.613,P<0.001) ,combined pulmonary hypertension (OR=19.812,95% CI:4.152 ~94.534,P<0.001)were independently related to the progression of fibrotic CTD-ILD. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the predictive model constructed based on stepwise regression was 0.92 in the training set,and the corresponding sensitivity,specificity,and 95%CI were 0.81,0.89,and 0.87~0.97,respectively; the AUC of the predictive model was 0.95 in the test set,and the corresponding sensitivity,specificity,and 95%CI were 0.82,0. 75,and 0. 88 ~1. 00,respectively. These results indicated that the model had an excellent discrimination ability. The calibration curves plotted based on the training set and the test set were basically consistent with the standard curves,which suggested that the model had a favorable calibration ability. The decision curve analysis (DCA) revealed that the model had a higher clinical net benefit within a large threshold in both the training set and the test set,which indicated that the model had favorable clinical utility.

Conclusion

A history of novel coronavirus infection,low level of DLCO%pred at baseline,combined pulmonary hypertension,and honeycomb shadow on HRCT are closely related to the progression of pulmonary fibrosis in patients with fibrotic CTD-ILD. The model constructed based on the above factors can accurately predict the progression of progressive fibrotic CTD-ILD and has certain clinical utility and generalization potency.

表1 两组纤维化性CTD-ILD 患者临床资料比较[n(%),()]
表2 纤维化性CTD-ILD 进展的单因素Logistic 回归
表3 纤维化性CTD-ILD 患者进展的多因素逐步Logistic 回归分析
图1 纤维化性CTD-ILD 进展的Nomogram 预测图
图2 多因素联合应用预测纤维化性CTD-ILD 进展的决策曲线。 图A 为训练集决策曲线;图B 为测试集决策曲线
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