Global perspective on the burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in China and future trends analysis

doi:10.3877/cma.j.issn.1674-6902.2024.06.002

Abstract

Abstract:

Objective

To analyze the disease burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease（COPD） in China from 1990 to 2021，and the trend of change from 2022 to 2050，in order to provide a reference for the prevention and control of COPD.

Methods

Chinese disease burden and risk factors of COPD from 1990 to 2021 were extracted in the Global Burden of Disease 2021.Percentage change and estimated annual percentage change were applied to analyze the evolution of the disease burden.And which in different sex and age groups was also analyzed.Deaths due to all risk factors were attributed and Bayesian age-periodcohort modeling was used to predict trends of COPD from 2022 to 2050.

Results

The number of incident，death，disability-adjusted life years（DALYs） in 2021 were 4 434 437.77，1 285 433.17 and 23 640 320.96，which was 105.20%，3.84%，and -9.42% higher than 1990，reapectively.The age-standardized rate of incident，death and DALYs showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2021，estimated annual percentage change was -0.84%，-4.25% and -4.19%，reapectively.In 2021，the number of incident，death，disability-adjusted life years（DALYs） were 2 226 848.07，752 026.94 and 13 480 743.00 among males，which was 112.81%，17.28% and -2.98% higher than 1990，reapectively.For females，there were 2 207 589.70 cases of incidence and 533 406.24 deaths，with 10 159 577.96 DALYs，representing 98.06%，-10.61% and -16.75% higher than 1990，reapectively.Indicating a gender difference.Disease burden increased significantly with age，with the peak of incidence and DALYs for males were in the 65-69 and 70-74 years old，and for females in the 70-74 and 80-84 years old.The peak in deaths for both genders was in the 80-84 age group，with no gender difference.The risk factors leading to COPD-related deaths have changed over time，with smoking being the leading risk factor in recent five years，and the most common risk factors for males and females being smoking and particulate matter pollution，respectively.The age-standardized rate of incidence，death and DALYs will continued decrease from 2022 to 2050.，with expected decreases to 139.71/100 000、15.80/100 000 and 362.03/100 000 by 2050，respectively.

Conclusion

The disease burden of COPD in China remains severe，and effective prevention and treatment strategies should beformulated for high-risk populations and risk factors.

Key words: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, Burden of disease, Risk factors, Future trends

Chenjing Luo, Fangfang Sheng, Jing Zhang, Guansong Wang, Heng Qin, Peng Gu. Global perspective on the burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in China and future trends analysis[J]. Chinese Journal of Lung Diseases(Electronic Edition), 2024, 17(06): 855-860.

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Figures/Tables 5

References 27

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时间	发病例数（例）	ASIR（/10万）	死亡例数（例）	ASDR（/10万）	DALYs（人年）	年龄标准化DALYs率（/10万）
1990	2 160 980.89（1 992 125.01～2 311 357.49）	271.22（251.66～288.62）	1 237 950.41（1 065 524.89～1 384 796.65）	231.78（198.98～257.42）	26 097 667.67（22 790 559.43～29 216 352.03）	3 852.57（3 349.97～4 279.01）
2021	4 434 437.77（4 008 615.31～4 860 417.98）	215.62（198.00～234.90）	1 285 433.17（1 044 727.80～1 539 819.91）	73.23（59.73～86.85）	23 640 320.96（19 998 658.36～27 921 931.16）	1 227.66（1 048.45～1 442.54）
PC（%）（95%UI）	105.20（91.14～116.82）	-20.50（-25.49～-16.78）	3.84（-18.01～31.69）	-68.40（-74.77～-60.49）	-9.42（-26.95～12.73）	-68.13（-74.22～-60.78）
EAPC（%）（95%CI）	/	-0.84（-0.88～-0.81）	/	-4.25（-4.48～-4.02）	/	-4.19（-4.38～-3.99）

时间	发病例数（例）	ASIR（/10万）	死亡例数（例）	ASDR（/10万）	DALYs（人年）	年龄标准化DALYs率（/10万）
1990	2 160 980.89（1 992 125.01～2 311 357.49）	271.22（251.66～288.62）	1 237 950.41（1 065 524.89～1 384 796.65）	231.78（198.98～257.42）	26 097 667.67（22 790 559.43～29 216 352.03）	3 852.57（3 349.97～4 279.01）
2021	4 434 437.77（4 008 615.31～4 860 417.98）	215.62（198.00～234.90）	1 285 433.17（1 044 727.80～1 539 819.91）	73.23（59.73～86.85）	23 640 320.96（19 998 658.36～27 921 931.16）	1 227.66（1 048.45～1 442.54）
PC（%）（95%UI）	105.20（91.14～116.82）	-20.50（-25.49～-16.78）	3.84（-18.01～31.69）	-68.40（-74.77～-60.49）	-9.42（-26.95～12.73）	-68.13（-74.22～-60.78）
EAPC（%）（95%CI）	/	-0.84（-0.88～-0.81）	/	-4.25（-4.48～-4.02）	/	-4.19（-4.38～-3.99）

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